Fuller, Jonathan (2020) Epidemiologic Evidence: Use at Your Own Risk? [Preprint]
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Abstract
What meaning does epidemiologic evidence have for the individual? In evidence-based medicine, epidemiologic evidence measures the patient’s risk of the outcome or the change in their risk due to an intervention. The patient’s risk is commonly understood as an individual probability. The problem of understanding epidemiologic evidence and risk thus becomes the challenge of interpreting individual patient probabilities. I argue that the patient’s risk is interpreted ontically, as a propensity. After exploring formidable problems with this interpretation in the medical context, I propose an epistemic reinterpretation of individual patient probabilities as credences. On this view, epidemiologic evidence informs medical uncertainty.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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| Additional Information: | Forthcoming in Philosophy of Science. | ||||||
| Keywords: | risk, epidemiology, evidence-based medicine, probability, philosophy of medicine | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Medicine > Clinical Trials Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology General Issues > Evidence Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Depositing User: | Dr Jonathan Fuller | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 04 Apr 2020 01:19 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 04 Apr 2020 01:19 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 17046 | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Medicine > Clinical Trials Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology General Issues > Evidence Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Date: | 2020 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/17046 |
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Epidemiologic Evidence: Use at Your Own Risk? (deposited 04 Apr 2020 01:17)
- Epidemiologic Evidence: Use at Your Own Risk? (deposited 04 Apr 2020 01:19) [Currently Displayed]
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