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Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling

Suárez, Mauricio (2019) Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling. [Preprint]

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Abstract

This book has two main aims. The first one (chapters 1-7) is an historically informed review of the philosophy of probability. It describes recent historiography, lays out the distinction between subjective and objective notions, and concludes by applying the historical lessons to the main interpretations of probability. The second aim (chapters 8-13) focuses entirely on objective probability, and advances a number of novel theses regarding its role in scientific practice. A distinction is drawn between traditional attempts to interpret chance, and a novel methodological study of its application. A radical form of pluralism is then introduced, advocating a tripartite distinction between propensities, probabilities and frequencies. Finally, a distinction is drawn between two different applications of chance in statistical modelling which, it is argued, vindicates the overall methodological approach. The ensuing conception of objective probability in practice is the ‘complex nexus of chance’.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Suárez, Mauriciomsuarez@filos.ucm.es0000-0002-2842-3641
Additional Information: Some past draft papers are now superseded by a forthcoming Cambridge University Press Elements volume entitled: "Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling". The deposited version is a preprint. For the final version, under Cambridge University Press copyright, see the Elements page: https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/philosophy-of-probability-and-statistical-modelling/C12D7946AE6E7224C08A0667DCB58A10
Keywords: Philosophy of Probability, Philosophy of Statistics, Modeling, Propensities, Chance
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Biology > Evolutionary Theory
General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Physics > Quantum Mechanics
Depositing User: Prof Mauricio Suárez
Date Deposited: 24 Oct 2020 19:46
Last Modified: 24 Oct 2020 19:46
Item ID: 18062
Official URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/philosophy...
DOI or Unique Handle: 9781108985826
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Biology > Evolutionary Theory
General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Physics > Quantum Mechanics
Date: 31 July 2019
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18062

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