Suárez, Mauricio (2019) Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling. [Preprint]

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Abstract

This book has two main aims. The first one (chapters 1-7) is an historically informed review of the philosophy of probability. It describes recent historiography, lays out the distinction between subjective and objective notions, and concludes by applying the historical lessons to the main interpretations of probability. The second aim (chapters 8-13) focuses entirely on objective probability, and advances a number of novel theses regarding its role in scientific practice. A distinction is drawn between traditional attempts to interpret chance, and a novel methodological study of its application. A radical form of pluralism is then introduced, advocating a tripartite distinction between propensities, probabilities and frequencies. Finally, a distinction is drawn between two different applications of chance in statistical modelling which, it is argued, vindicates the overall methodological approach. The ensuing conception of objective probability in practice is the ‘complex nexus of chance’.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Suárez, Mauricio msuarez@filos.ucm.es 0000-0002-2842-3641
Additional Information:	Some past draft papers are now superseded by a forthcoming Cambridge University Press Elements volume entitled: "Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling". The deposited version is a preprint. For the final version, under Cambridge University Press copyright, see the Elements page: https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/philosophy-of-probability-and-statistical-modelling/C12D7946AE6E7224C08A0667DCB58A10
Keywords:	Philosophy of Probability, Philosophy of Statistics, Modeling, Propensities, Chance
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Biology > Evolutionary Theory General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism General Issues > Models and Idealization Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Quantum Mechanics
Depositing User:	Prof Mauricio Suárez
Date Deposited:	24 Oct 2020 19:46
Last Modified:	24 Oct 2020 19:46
Item ID:	18062
Official URL:	https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/philosophy...
DOI or Unique Handle:	9781108985826
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Biology > Evolutionary Theory General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism General Issues > Models and Idealization Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Quantum Mechanics
Date:	31 July 2019
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18062

Available Versions of this Item

• Explanatory Chance. (deposited 31 Aug 2019 22:53)
  • Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling. (deposited 24 Oct 2020 19:46) [Currently Displayed]
    • Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling. (deposited 02 Jan 2021 00:11)

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