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Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling

Suárez, Mauricio (2020) Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling. Elements in the Philosophy of Science series. ISSN 9781108985826

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Abstract

This book has two main aims. The first one (chapters 1-7) is an historically informed review of the philosophy of probability. It describes recent historiography, lays out the distinction between subjective and objective notions, and concludes by applying the historical lessons to the main interpretations of probability. The second aim (chapters 8-13) focuses entirely on objective probability, and advances a number of novel theses regarding its role in scientific practice. A distinction is drawn between traditional attempts to interpret chance, and a novel methodological study of its application. A radical form of pluralism is then introduced, advocating a tripartite distinction between propensities, probabilities and frequencies. Finally, a distinction is drawn between two different applications of chance in statistical modelling which, it is argued, vindicates the overall methodological approach. The ensuing conception of objective probability in practice is the ‘complex nexus of chance’.


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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Suárez, Mauriciomsuarez@filos.ucm.es0000-0002-2842-3641
Additional Information: Some past draft papers are now superseded by this short volume just published by Cambridge University Press (December 2020) and entitled: "Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modeling", of which the old deposited version is a preprint. For the final published version, see the Elements page: https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/philosophy-of-probability-and-statistical-modelling/C12D7946AE6E7224C08A0667DCB58A10
Keywords: Philosophy of Science, Philosophy of Probability, Philosophy of Statistics
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Biology > Evolutionary Theory
General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Physics > Quantum Mechanics
Depositing User: Prof Mauricio Suárez
Date Deposited: 02 Jan 2021 00:11
Last Modified: 02 Jan 2021 00:11
Item ID: 18512
Journal or Publication Title: Elements in the Philosophy of Science series
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Official URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/philosophy...
DOI or Unique Handle: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108985826
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Biology > Evolutionary Theory
General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Physics > Quantum Mechanics
Date: 1 December 2020
ISSN: 9781108985826
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18512

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