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HARKing: From Misdiagnosis to Mispescription

Mohseni, Aydin (2020) HARKing: From Misdiagnosis to Mispescription. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The practice of HARKing---hypothesizing after results are known---is commonly maligned as undermining the reliability of scientific findings. There are several accounts in the literature as to why HARKing undermines the reliability of findings. We argue that none of these is right and that the correct account is a Bayesian one. HARKing can indeed decrease the reliability of scientific findings, but it can also increase it; which effect HARKing produces depends on the difference of the prior odds of hypotheses characteristically selected ex ante and ex post to observing data. Further, we show how misdiagnosis of HARKing can lead to misprescription in the context of the replication crisis.

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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Mohseni, Aydinamohseni@uci.edu0000-0002-4054-0058
Keywords: social epistemoloyg, Bayesian epistemology, philosophy of statistics, replication crisis
Subjects: General Issues > Computer Simulation
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Science and Policy
General Issues > Social Epistemology of Science
Depositing User: Aydin Mohseni
Date Deposited: 18 Dec 2020 05:02
Last Modified: 18 Dec 2020 05:02
Item ID: 18523
Subjects: General Issues > Computer Simulation
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Science and Policy
General Issues > Social Epistemology of Science
Date: 2020
URI: https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18523

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