Chua, Eugene Y. S.
(2021)
Equipossibility and Accuracy: An Old Problem for a New Argument for the Principle of Indifference.
In: UNSPECIFIED.
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Laplace's Equipossibility, Accuracy, and Principle of Indifference (PSA Preprint).pdf
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Abstract
For Laplace, equal possibilities entail equal probabilities. However, 'equally possible' better not mean 'equally probable' since this renders the definition circular. Yet, there doesn't seem to be a plausible 'possibility-probability link'. The attempt to justify the principle of indifference by appealing to equipossibility risks either circularity or a lack of justification. Recently, Pettigrew (2016) has provided an argument for the principle of indifference by adapting Joyce's well-known arguments from accuracy (1998/2009). Here, I will argue that Pettigrew's argument implicitly relies on the notion of equipossibility: Just like Laplace, his argument is either circular or unjustified. However, I conclude on a positive note. Pettigrew’s argument can be seen as an explication of Laplace’s argument, and hence of the principle of indifference.
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