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An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths

Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A. (2022) An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths. [Preprint]

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Abstract

In recent publications we have drawn attention to the fact that if the dynamics of a model is structurally
unstable, then the presence of structural model error places in-principle limits on the model’s ability to generate decision-relevant probability forecasts. Writing with a varying array of co-authors, Eric Winsberg has now produced at least four publications in which he dismisses our points as unfounded; the most recent of these appeared in this journal. In this paper we respond to the arguments of Winsberg and his co-workers, and we point out that their criticisms fail. We take this as an opportunity to restate and explain our arguments, and to point to fruitful directions for future research.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Frigg, Romanr.p.frigg@lse.ac.uk
Smith, Leonard A.lennys@vt.edu
Additional Information: This paper responds to http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/14979/
Keywords: hawkmoth effect, structural model error, climate model, climate change, forecast, projection, probability, chaos, sensitive dependence on initial conditions
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Complex Systems
Specific Sciences > Physics > Classical Physics
Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology
General Issues > Computer Simulation
Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
Specific Sciences > Environmental Science
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Physics
General Issues > Science and Policy
Depositing User: Roman Frigg
Date Deposited: 10 Apr 2022 18:41
Last Modified: 10 Apr 2022 18:41
Item ID: 20448
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Complex Systems
Specific Sciences > Physics > Classical Physics
Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology
General Issues > Computer Simulation
Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
Specific Sciences > Environmental Science
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Physics
General Issues > Science and Policy
Date: March 2022
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/20448

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