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Pandemic Modeling, Good and Bad

Northcott, Robert (2022) Pandemic Modeling, Good and Bad. Philosophy of Medicine, 3 (1). pp. 1-20. ISSN 2692-3963

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What kind of epidemiological modeling works well? This is determined by the nature of the target: the relevant causal relations are unstable across contexts. I look at two influential examples of modeling from the Covid pandemic. The first is the paper from Imperial College London, which, in March 2020, was influential in persuading the UK government to impose a lockdown. Because it assumes stability, this first example of modeling fails. A different modeling strategy is required, one less ambitious but more effective. This is illustrated by a second paper from Imperial College London, which, in December 2020, first estimated the transmissibility of the Alpha variant.

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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Keywords: Pandemic Model Epidemiology Fragility CovidSim model
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology
Depositing User: Professor Alex Broadbent
Date Deposited: 11 Oct 2022 14:54
Last Modified: 11 Oct 2022 14:54
Item ID: 21259
Journal or Publication Title: Philosophy of Medicine
Publisher: University Library System, University of Pittsburgh
Official URL:
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.5195/pom.2022.79
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology
Date: 19 May 2022
Page Range: pp. 1-20
Volume: 3
Number: 1
ISSN: 2692-3963

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