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A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Paul, Franceschi (2008) A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. [Preprint]

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I describe in this paper an ontological solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with describing the Entanglement urn experiment. I restate first the Sleeping Beauty problem from a wider perspective than the usual opposition between halfers and thirders. I also argue that the Sleeping Beauty experiment is best modelled with the Entanglement urn. I draw then the consequences of considering that some balls in the Entanglement urn have ontologically different properties form normal ones. In this context, considering a Monday-waking (drawing a red ball) leads to two different situations that are assigned each a different probability. This leads to a two-sided account of the Sleeping Beauty problem. On the one hand, the first situation is handled by the argument for 1/3. On the other hand, the second situation corresponds to a reasoning that echoes the argument for 1/2 but that leads however, to different conclusions.

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Item Type: Preprint
Paul, Franceschi
Keywords: Sleeping Beauty problem, probability, urn analogy, one-sidedness, two-sidedness
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Paul Franceschi
Date Deposited: 11 Dec 2008
Last Modified: 29 Oct 2010 15:48
Item ID: 4376

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