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Bias and Conditioning in Sequential medical trials

Nardini, Cecilia and Sprenger, Jan (2012) Bias and Conditioning in Sequential medical trials. In: [2012] Philosophy of Science Assoc. 23rd Biennial Mtg (San Diego, CA) > PSA 2012 Contributed Papers.

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    Abstract

    Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are currently the gold standard within evidence-based medicine. Usually, they are conducted as sequential trials allowing for monitoring for early signs of effectiveness or harm. However, evidence from early stopped trials is often charged with being biased towards implausibly large effects (e.g., Bassler et al. 2010). To our mind, this skeptical attitude is unfounded and caused by the failure to perform appropriate conditioning in the statistical analysis of the evidence. We contend that a shift from unconditional hypothesis tests in the style of Neyman and Pearson to conditional hypothesis tests (Berger, Brown and Wolpert 1994) gives a superior appreciation of the obtained evidence and significantly improves the practice of sequential medical trials, while staying firmly rooted in frequentist methodology.


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    Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
    Keywords: clinical trials, frequentism, Bayesianism, sequential analysis, hypothesis test, conditioning
    Subjects: Specific Sciences > Medicine
    Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
    Conferences and Volumes: [2012] Philosophy of Science Assoc. 23rd Biennial Mtg (San Diego, CA) > PSA 2012 Contributed Papers
    Depositing User: Unnamed user with email cecilia.nardini@ieo.eu
    Date Deposited: 07 Nov 2012 21:12
    Last Modified: 07 Nov 2012 21:12
    Item ID: 9415
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9415

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