Probability in Fine-Tuning Design Arguments

Staley, Kent (2007) Probability in Fine-Tuning Design Arguments.

Abstract

This paper examines probabilistic versions of the fine-tuning argument for design
(FTA), with an emphasis on the interpretation of the probability statements involved in such
arguments. Three categories of probability are considered: physical, epistemic, and logical. Of the
three possibilities, I argue that only logical probability could possibly support a cogent probabilistic
FTA. However, within that framework, the premises of the argument require a level of justification
that has not been met, and, it is reasonable to believe, will not be met anytime soon.