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Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation

Iranzo, Valeraino (2008) Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation. THEORIA. An International Journal for Theory, History and Foundations of Science, 23 (1). pp. 89-106. ISSN 2171-679X

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Abstract

Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE) are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay) and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay). After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i) endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii) avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii) fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.

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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Iranzo, ValerainoValeriano.Iranzo@uv.es
Additional Information: ISSN: 0495-4548 (print)
Keywords: Bayesian epistemology, inference to the best explanation, confirmation, frequentism, prior probability, explanatory value
Depositing User: Users 15304 not found.
Date Deposited: 28 Feb 2014 00:37
Last Modified: 28 Feb 2014 00:37
Item ID: 10410
Journal or Publication Title: THEORIA. An International Journal for Theory, History and Foundations of Science
Publisher: Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea / Universidad del País Vasco
Official URL: http://www.ehu.es/ojs/index.php/THEORIA/article/vi...
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1387/theoria.11
Date: January 2008
Page Range: pp. 89-106
Volume: 23
Number: 1
ISSN: 2171-679X
URI: https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/10410

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