Leconte, Gauvain (2014) Predictive success, partial truth and skeptical realism. In: UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

Realists argue that mature theories enjoying predictive success are approximately and partially true, and that the parts of the theory necessary to this success are retained through theory-change and worthy of belief. I examine the paradigmatic case of the novel prediction of a white spot in the shadow of a circular object, drawn from Fresnel's wave theory of light by Poisson in 1819. It reveals two problems in this defence of realism: predictive success needs theoretical idealizations and fictions on the one hand, and may be obtained by using different parts of the same theory on the other hand.

I maintain that these two problems are not limited to the case of the white spot, but common features of predictive success. It shows that the no-miracle argument by itself cannot prove more than a \textit{skeptical realism}, the claim that we cannot know which parts of theories are true. I conclude by examining if Hacking's manipulability arguments can be of any help to go beyond this position.

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Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Leconte, Gauvain gauvainleconte@gmail.com
Keywords:	scientific realism, novel prediction, no-miracle argument, partial truth, manipulability
Subjects:	General Issues > Models and Idealization General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism General Issues > Theory Change
Depositing User:	Mr Gauvain Leconte
Date Deposited:	03 Aug 2014 15:02
Last Modified:	03 Aug 2014 15:02
Item ID:	10925
Subjects:	General Issues > Models and Idealization General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism General Issues > Theory Change
Date:	August 2014
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/10925

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