Colombo, Matteo and Bucher, Leandra and Postma, Marie and Sprenger, Jan (2014) Explanatory Value and Probabilistic Reasoning. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The question of how judgments of explanatory value (should) inform probabilistic inference is well studied within psychology and philosophy. Less studied are the questions: How does probabilistic information affect judgments of explanatory value? Does probabilistic information take precedence over causal information in determining explanatory judgments? To answer these questions, we conducted two experimental studies. In Study 1, we found that probabilistic information had a negligible impact on explanatory judgments of event-types with a potentially unlimited number of available, alternative explanations; causal credibility was the main determinant of explanatory value. In Study 2, we found that, for event-token explanations with a definite set of candidate alternatives, probabilistic information strongly affected judgments of explanatory value. In the light of these findings, we reassess under which circumstances explanatory inference is probabilistically sound.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Colombo, Matteo m.colombo@uvt.nl Bucher, Leandra leandra.bucher@psychol.uni-giessen.de Postma, Marie marie.postma@uvt.nl Sprenger, Jan j.sprenger@uvt.nl
Keywords:	explanation, probability, causality, abduction
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Experimentation General Issues > Explanation Specific Sciences > Psychology
Depositing User:	Jan Sprenger
Date Deposited:	26 Mar 2015 14:30
Last Modified:	26 Mar 2015 14:30
Item ID:	11392
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Experimentation General Issues > Explanation Specific Sciences > Psychology
Date:	2014
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11392

Available Versions of this Item

• Explanatory Value and Probabilistic Reasoning: An Empirical Study. (deposited 03 May 2014 13:04)
  • Explanatory Judgment, Probability, and Abductive Inference. (deposited 17 May 2016 14:41)
  • Explanatory Value and Probabilistic Reasoning. (deposited 26 Mar 2015 14:30) [Currently Displayed]

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