Dawid, Richard and Hartmann, Stephan (2016) The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy. [Preprint]

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Abstract

According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson's argument only applies to one of two versions of the no-miracles argument. The other, more considerate version is not adequately reconstructed in Howson's
approach and thus remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a Bayesian reconstruction of this version of the no-miracles argument and show that it is valid. We then proceed to discuss a number of aspects of NMA on that basis.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Dawid, Richard richard.dawid@univie.ac.at Hartmann, Stephan S.Hartmann@lmu.de
Keywords:	Bayesianism, no miracles argument, realism, base rate fallacy
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
Depositing User:	Dr. Richard Dawid
Date Deposited:	25 Jan 2016 18:22
Last Modified:	25 Jan 2016 18:22
Item ID:	11883
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
Date:	January 2016
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11883

Available Versions of this Item

• The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy. (deposited 25 Jan 2016 18:22) [Currently Displayed]
  • The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy. (deposited 18 Nov 2016 19:44)
    • The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy. (deposited 27 Mar 2017 13:20)
      • The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy. (deposited 07 Apr 2017 15:13)

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