Dardashti, Radin and Hartmann, Stephan and Thebault, Karim P Y and Winsberg, Eric
(2015)
Hawking Radiation and Analogue Experiments: A Bayesian Analysis.
[Preprint]
Abstract
We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First we prove such experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to `universality arguments'. We then provide a formal model for the scaling behaviour of the confirmation measure for multiple distinct realisations of the analogue system and isolate a generic saturation feature. Finally, we demonstrate that different potential analogue realisations could provide different levels of confirmation. Our results provide a basis both to formalise the epistemic value of analogue experiments that have been conducted and to advise scientists as to the respective epistemic value of future analogue experiments.
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