Mohseni, Aydin (2020) HARKing: From Misdiagnosis to Mispescription. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The practice of HARKing---hypothesizing after results are known---is commonly maligned as undermining the reliability of scientific findings. There are several accounts in the literature as to why HARKing undermines the reliability of findings. We argue that none of these is right and that the correct account is a Bayesian one. HARKing can indeed decrease the reliability of scientific findings, but it can also increase it; which effect HARKing produces depends on the difference of the prior odds of hypotheses characteristically selected ex ante and ex post to observing data. Further, we show how misdiagnosis of HARKing can lead to misprescription in the context of the replication crisis.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Mohseni, Aydin amohseni@uci.edu 0000-0002-4054-0058
Keywords:	social epistemoloyg, Bayesian epistemology, philosophy of statistics, replication crisis
Subjects:	General Issues > Computer Simulation Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Science and Policy General Issues > Social Epistemology of Science
Depositing User:	Aydin Mohseni
Date Deposited:	16 Nov 2020 14:48
Last Modified:	16 Nov 2020 14:48
Item ID:	18328
Subjects:	General Issues > Computer Simulation Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Science and Policy General Issues > Social Epistemology of Science
Date:	2020
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18328

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• HARKing: From Misdiagnosis to Mispescription. (deposited 16 Nov 2020 14:48) [Currently Displayed]
  • HARKing: From Misdiagnosis to Mispescription. (deposited 18 Dec 2020 05:02)

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