Dohrn, Daniel (2021) Chance Debugged. Lato Sensu, revue de la Société de philosophie des sciences, 8 (2). pp. 6-14. ISSN 2295-8029
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Abstract
A ‘Big Bad Bug’ threatens Lewis’s Humean metaphysics of chance (Lewis 1986a, p. XIV); his Principal Principle provides an intuitive link between chance and credence. Yet on the one hand, certain future developments are incompatible with the true theory of chance, but on the other hand, such future developments have a positive chance to occur. The combination of these two claims with the Principal Principle leads to inconsistent credences. I present a Humean solution to the Bug: chances are relative to a limited perspective. The perspective comprises facts available as evidence to an ideal cognizer at a point in space-time. As a consequence, the same future event can have different chances of occurring provided the perspective is different. I show how this dissolves the Bug.
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| Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | ||||||
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| Keywords: | chance, probability, Humean supervenience, Big Bad Bug | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Applicability Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Ontology |
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| Depositing User: | Lato Sensu | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 25 Apr 2021 03:54 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 25 Apr 2021 03:54 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 18939 | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Lato Sensu, revue de la Société de philosophie des sciences | ||||||
| Publisher: | Société de philosophie des sciences | ||||||
| Official URL: | https://ojs.uclouvain.be/index.php/latosensu/artic... | ||||||
| DOI or Unique Handle: | 10.20416/LSRSPS.V8I2.2 | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Applicability Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Ontology |
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| Date: | 6 April 2021 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 6-14 | ||||||
| Volume: | 8 | ||||||
| Number: | 2 | ||||||
| ISSN: | 2295-8029 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18939 |
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