Franceschi, Paul (2004) A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. [Preprint]

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Abstract

In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. I begin by strengthening both competing models by highlighting some variations of their ancestors models, which renders them less vulnerable to some objections. I describe then a third line of solution, which incorporates insights from both Leslie and Eckhardt's models and fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. I argue then that this two-sided analogy casts new light on the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Franceschi, Paul
Additional Information:	major revision
Keywords:	determinism, Doomsday argument, urn analogy
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
Depositing User:	Paul Franceschi
Date Deposited:	02 Sep 2004
Last Modified:	07 Oct 2010 15:12
Item ID:	1925
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
Date:	September 2004
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1925

Available Versions of this Item

• A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. (deposited 24 May 2003)
  • A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. (deposited 26 Feb 2004)
    • A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. (deposited 02 Sep 2004) [Currently Displayed]

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