Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A.
(2022)
An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths.
[Preprint]
Abstract
In recent publications we have drawn attention to the fact that if the dynamics of a model is structurally
unstable, then the presence of structural model error places in-principle limits on the model’s ability to generate decision-relevant probability forecasts. Writing with a varying array of co-authors, Eric Winsberg has now produced at least four publications in which he dismisses our points as unfounded; the most recent of these appeared in this journal. In this paper we respond to the arguments of Winsberg and his co-workers, and we point out that their criticisms fail. We take this as an opportunity to restate and explain our arguments, and to point to fruitful directions for future research.
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