Dethier, Corey (2022) Ensembles as Evidence, Not Experts: On the Value and Interpretation of Climate Models. [Preprint]
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Abstract
Climate scientists frequently interpret climate models as providing probabilistic information, a practice that has come under substantial criticism from philosophers of science. The present paper defends this interpretation. I show that the probabilistic information provided by “ensembles” of climate models is invaluable to climate science; it provides important information about how to distribute confidence over various alternatives. Importantly, this information is best understood and treated as evidence (rather than as some kind of deferral-worthy expert function). From this perspective, it becomes clear that the criticisms raised by philosophers only motivate a moderate position according to which some but not all uses of the probabilities generated by “ensemble-
based methods” are appropriate.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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| Additional Information: | Draft; comments extremely welcome. Please contact at corey.dethier[at]gmail.com before citing or quoting. | ||||||
| Keywords: | climate models; probabilities; ensembles; statistics; higher-order evidence | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Depositing User: | Dr. Corey Dethier | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 18 May 2022 13:30 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 18 May 2022 13:30 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 20629 | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Date: | 2022 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/20629 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Ensembles as Evidence, Not Experts: On the Value and Interpretation of Climate Models. (deposited 05 Feb 2022 00:58)
- Ensembles as Evidence, Not Experts: On the Value and Interpretation of Climate Models. (deposited 18 May 2022 13:30) [Currently Displayed]
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