Northcott, Robert (2022) Pandemic Modeling, Good and Bad. Philosophy of Medicine, 3 (1). pp. 1-20. ISSN 2692-3963
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Abstract
What kind of epidemiological modeling works well? This is determined by the nature of the target: the relevant causal relations are unstable across contexts. I look at two influential examples of modeling from the Covid pandemic. The first is the paper from Imperial College London, which, in March 2020, was influential in persuading the UK government to impose a lockdown. Because it assumes stability, this first example of modeling fails. A different modeling strategy is required, one less ambitious but more effective. This is illustrated by a second paper from Imperial College London, which, in December 2020, first estimated the transmissibility of the Alpha variant.
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| Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | ||||||
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| Keywords: | Pandemic Model Epidemiology Fragility CovidSim model | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology | ||||||
| Depositing User: | Professor Alex Broadbent | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 11 Oct 2022 14:54 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 11 Oct 2022 14:54 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 21259 | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophy of Medicine | ||||||
| Publisher: | University Library System, University of Pittsburgh | ||||||
| Official URL: | https://philmed.pitt.edu/philmed/article/view/79 | ||||||
| DOI or Unique Handle: | 10.5195/pom.2022.79 | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology | ||||||
| Date: | 19 May 2022 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1-20 | ||||||
| Volume: | 3 | ||||||
| Number: | 1 | ||||||
| ISSN: | 2692-3963 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/21259 |
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Pandemic modeling, good and bad. (deposited 15 Jun 2022 03:08)
- Pandemic Modeling, Good and Bad. (deposited 11 Oct 2022 14:54) [Currently Displayed]
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