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Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports

Dethier, Corey (2022) Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports. Ergo, 10 (7). pp. 188-210. ISSN 2330-4014

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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) often qualifies its statements by use of probabilistic “likelihood” language. In this paper, I show that this language is not properly interpreted in either frequentist or Bayesian terms—simply put, the IPCC uses both kinds of statistics to calculate these likelihoods. I then offer a deflationist interpretation: the probabilistic language expresses nothing more than how compatible the evidence is with the given hypothesis according to some method that generates normalized scores. I end by drawing some tentative normative conclusions.

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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Dethier, Coreycorey.dethier@gmail.com0000-0002-1240-8391
Keywords: Probability, IPCC, Climate Science
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Dr. Corey Dethier
Date Deposited: 21 Nov 2023 00:06
Last Modified: 21 Nov 2023 00:06
Item ID: 22781
Journal or Publication Title: Ergo
Publisher: Michigan Publishing
DOI or Unique Handle: https://doi.org/10.3998/ergo.4637
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 2022
Page Range: pp. 188-210
Volume: 10
Number: 7
ISSN: 2330-4014
URI: https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/22781

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