Boudry, Maarten and Hofhuis, Steije (2023) On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Many pseudosciences, conspiracy theories and other unfounded belief systems have a self-sealing nature, being equipped with defence mechanisms and immunising strategies that protect them against counterevidence and criticism. In this paper we discuss the existence of ‘epistemic black holes’, belief systems which posit intelligent agents that are deliberately evading detection and thus sabotaging any investigation into their existence. These belief systems have the remarkable feature that they predict an absence of evidence in their favour, and even the discovery of counterevidence. The most obvious instances of such epistemic black holes are unfounded conspiracy theories, but examples crop up in other domains as well. We outline the development and cultural evolution of epistemic black holes, drawing from a number of case studies. Most importantly, because of their self-sealing character and resilience to counterevidence, epistemic black holes suffer from a recurring problem of arbitrariness and proliferating alternatives. Shedding light on how epistemic black holes function can help to inoculate people against their enduring allure, and to protect our societies against “infodemics”.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Boudry, Maarten maartenboudry@gmail.com Hofhuis, Steije
Keywords:	belief systems; irrationality, conspiracy theory; epistemology; cultural evolution; religion; psychoanalysis; witchcraft
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology Specific Sciences > Cultural Evolution
Depositing User:	Maarten Maarten Boudry
Date Deposited:	05 Apr 2024 18:28
Last Modified:	05 Apr 2024 18:28
Item ID:	22981
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology Specific Sciences > Cultural Evolution
Date:	26 April 2023
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/22981

Available Versions of this Item

• The Truth Is (Still) out There. On the Epistemology and Cultural Dynamics of Conspiracy Beliefs. (deposited 15 Aug 2020 03:26)
  • On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. (deposited 12 Aug 2022 14:38)
    • On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. (deposited 30 Oct 2022 18:42)
      • On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. (deposited 31 Jan 2023 18:29)
        • On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. (deposited 29 Apr 2023 12:29)
          • On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. (deposited 26 May 2023 20:01)
            • On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. (deposited 09 Aug 2023 13:52)
              • On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. (deposited 05 Apr 2024 18:28) [Currently Displayed]
                • On Epistemic Black Holes. How Self-Sealing Belief Systems Develop and Evolve. (deposited 15 Jan 2024 05:39)

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