PhilSci Archive

The Variety-of-Evidence Thesis and the Reliability of Instruments: A Bayesian-Network Approach

Hartmann, Stephan and Bovens, Luc (2001) The Variety-of-Evidence Thesis and the Reliability of Instruments: A Bayesian-Network Approach. [Preprint]

[img]
Preview
PDF
Variety.pdf

Download (130kB)

Abstract

The variety of evidence thesis in confirmation theory states that more varied supporting evidence confirms a hypothesis to a greater degree than less varied evidence. Under a very plausible interpretation of this thesis, positive test results from multiple independent instruments confirm a hypothesis to a greater degree than positive test results from a single instrument. We invoke Bayesian Networks to model confirmation on grounds of evidence that is obtained from less than fully reliable instruments and show that the variety of evidence thesis is not sacrosanct when testing is conducted with less than fully reliable instruments: under certain conditions, a hypothesis receives more confirmation from evidence that is obtained from one rather than from more independent instruments. In the appendix, we prove certain convergence results for large numbers of positive test results from single versus multiple less than fully reliable instruments.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Hartmann, Stephans.hartmann@lmu.de0000-0001-8676-2177
Bovens, Luc
Keywords: Confirmation theory, Bayesianism; variety of evidence thesis; Bayesian networks; unreliable instruments
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Depositing User: Stephan Hartmann
Date Deposited: 17 Apr 2001
Last Modified: 12 Jul 2024 17:58
Item ID: 235
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Date: February 2001
URI: https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/235

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item