Linnemann, Niels and Azhar, Feraz (2024) Better permissible guesses. [Preprint]
![[img]](https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
linnemann+azhar_24_v6.pdf - Submitted Version Download (614kB) |
Abstract
It has recently become popular to analyze scenarios in which we guess, in terms of a trade-off between the accuracy of our guess (namely, its credence) and its specificity (namely, how many answers it rules out). Dorst and Mandelkern describe an account of guessing, based on epistemic utility theory (EUT), in which permissible guesses vary depending on how one weighs accuracy against specificity. We provide a minimal formal account of guessing that: (i) does not employ EUT, but rests on how such trade-offs are treated in the sciences; (ii) is relatively parsimonious; and (iii) is consistent with a variety of more specific models that describe what an agent is doing when they (rationally) guess. Our account also recovers patterns of guessing and predictions about typical outcomes of guessing, as identified by Dorst and Mandelkern. Furthermore, we focus on how permissible guesses can be improved upon, via changes in an agent's credence distribution. Such 'better permissible guesses' can be generated in solving 'Fermi problems'---guessing problems of a type that has received almost no attention in the philosophical literature---which we also analyze. Our account strengthens the case for understanding guessing (now, very broadly considered) in terms of accuracy-specificity trade-offs.
| Export/Citation: | EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL |
| Social Networking: |
| Item Type: | Preprint | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creators: |
|
|||||||||
| Keywords: | Guessing, Fermi problems, Pareto front | |||||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Economics Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
|||||||||
| Depositing User: | Dr. Feraz Azhar | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 23 Sep 2024 12:16 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 23 Sep 2024 12:16 | |||||||||
| Item ID: | 23928 | |||||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Economics Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
|||||||||
| Date: | 13 February 2024 | |||||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/23928 |
Monthly Views for the past 3 years
Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years
Plum Analytics
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
![[feed]](http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/style/images/feed-icon-32x32.png){kind=icon}