Khosrowi, Donal (2021) What’s (Successful) Extrapolation? Journal of Economic Methodology, 29 (2). pp. 140-152.
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Abstract
Extrapolating causal effects is becoming an increasingly important kind of inference in Evidence-Based Policy, development economics, and microeconometrics more generally. While several strategies have been proposed to aid with extrapolation, the existing methodological literature has left our understanding of what extrapolation consists in and what constitutes successful extrapolation underdeveloped. This paper addresses this lack in understanding by offering a novel account of successful extrapolation. Building on existing contributions pertaining to the challenges involved in extrapolation, this more nuanced and comprehensive account seeks to provide tools that facilitate the scrutiny of specific extrapolative inferences and general strategies for extrapolation. Offering such resources is important especially in view of the increasing amounts of real-world decision-making in policy, development, and beyond that involve extrapolation.
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| Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | ||||||
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| Keywords: | Extrapolation, Causal inference, Extrapolator’s circle, Evidence-Based Policy, development economics | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Causation Specific Sciences > Economics General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Experimentation General Issues > Science and Policy |
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| Depositing User: | Donal Khosrowi | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 24 Mar 2025 13:33 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 24 Mar 2025 13:33 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 24931 | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Economic Methodology | ||||||
| Publisher: | Taylor and Francis | ||||||
| Official URL: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/1350178X.2... | ||||||
| DOI or Unique Handle: | 10.1080/1350178X.2021.1952290 | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Causation Specific Sciences > Economics General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Experimentation General Issues > Science and Policy |
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| Date: | 20 July 2021 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 140-152 | ||||||
| Volume: | 29 | ||||||
| Number: | 2 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24931 |
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