Ahmed, Sarwar (2025) Inference to the Source. [Preprint]
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Text (Forthcoming in Synthese)
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Abstract
It has been argued that, in scientific observations, the theory of the observed
source should not be involved in the observation process to avoid circular rea-
soning and ensure reliable inferences. However, the issue of underdetermination
of the source has been largely overlooked. I argue that concerns about circularity
in inferring the source stem from the hypothetico-deductive (H-D) method. The
epistemic threat, if any, arises not from the theory-laden nature of observation
but from the underdetermination of the source by the data, since the data could
be explained by proposing incompatible sources for it. Overcoming this under-
determination is key to reliably inferring the source. I propose a bidirectional
version of inference to the only explanation as a methodological framework that
addresses this challenge while circumventing concerns about theory-ladenness.
Nevertheless, fully justifying the viability of the background theoretical frame-
work and its accurate description of the source requires a broader conception
of evidence. To this end, I argue that integrating meta-empirical assessment
into inference to the only explanation offers a promising strategy, extending the
concept of evidence in a justifiable manner.
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