Friederich, Simon (2025) Causation, Cluelessness, and the Long Term. Ergo, 12 (17). pp. 440-459. ISSN 2330-4014

Text ergo-7428-friederich.pdf Download (818kB)

Abstract

Agents are said to be "clueless" if they are unable to predict some ethically important consequences of their actions. Some philosophers have argued that such "cluelessness" is widespread and creates problems for certain approaches to ethics. According to Hilary Greaves, a particularly problematic type of cluelessness, namely, "complex" cluelessness, affects attempts to do good as effectively as possible, as suggested by proponents of "Effective Altruism," because we are typically clueless about the long-term consequences of such interventions. As a reaction, she suggests focusing on interventions that are long-term oriented from the start.

This paper argues for three claims: first, that David Lewis' distinction between sensitive and insensitive causation can help us better understand the differences between genuinely "complex" and more harmless "simple" cluelessness; second, that Greaves' worry about complex cluelessness can be mitigated for attempts to do near-term good; and, third, that Greaves' recommendation to focus on long term-oriented interventions in response to complex cluelessness is not promising as a strategy specifically for avoiding complex cluelessness. There are systematic reasons why the actual effects of serious attempts to beneficially shape the long-term future are inherently difficult to predict and why, hence, such attempts are prone to backfiring.

---

Export/Citation:

EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL

Social Networking:

Share |

---

Item Type:	Published Article or Volume
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Friederich, Simon s.m.friederich@rug.nl 0000-0003-4372-5995
Keywords:	causation, cluelessness, longtermism, effective altruism, existential risks
Subjects:	General Issues > Causation General Issues > Ethical Issues General Issues > Technology
Depositing User:	Dr. Simon Friederich
Date Deposited:	14 Apr 2025 13:27
Last Modified:	14 Apr 2025 13:27
Item ID:	25043
Journal or Publication Title:	Ergo
Publisher:	Michigan Publishing
Official URL:	https://journals.publishing.umich.edu/ergo/article...
DOI or Unique Handle:	https://doi.org/10.3998/ergo.7428
Subjects:	General Issues > Causation General Issues > Ethical Issues General Issues > Technology
Date:	7 April 2025
Page Range:	pp. 440-459
Volume:	12
Number:	17
ISSN:	2330-4014
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/25043

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Altmetric.com

Actions (login required)

View Item