Ahmed, Sarwar (2025) Inference to the Source. Synthese, 205 (192). pp. 1-28. ISSN 1573-0964

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Abstract

It has been argued that, in scientific observations, the theory of the observed source should not be involved in the observation process to avoid circular reasoning and ensure reliable inferences. However, the issue of underdetermination of the source has been largely overlooked. I argue that concerns about circularity in inferring the source stem from the hypothetico-deductive (H-D) method. The epistemic threat, if any, arises not from the theory-laden nature of observation but from the underdetermination of the source by the data, since the data could be explained by proposing incompatible sources for it. Overcoming this underdetermination is key to reliably inferring the source. I propose a bidirectional version of inference to the only explanation as a methodological framework that addresses this challenge while circumventing concerns about theory-ladenness. Nevertheless, fully justifying the viability of the background theoretical framework and its accurate description of the source requires a broader conception of evidence. To this end, I argue that integrating meta-empirical assessment into inference to the only explanation offers a promising strategy, extending the concept of evidence in a justifiable manner.

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Item Type:	Published Article or Volume
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Ahmed, Sarwar sarwarmuhamad84@gmail.com 0000-0002-1992-8314
Keywords:	observation, source, binary black holes, circularity, H-D method, meta-empirical assessments
Subjects:	General Issues > Data Specific Sciences > Physics > Astrophysics General Issues > Causation Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Experimentation General Issues > Explanation Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Physics > Relativity Theory General Issues > Theory/Observation
Depositing User:	Sarwar Ahmed
Date Deposited:	25 Apr 2025 13:15
Last Modified:	25 Apr 2025 13:15
Item ID:	25163
Journal or Publication Title:	Synthese
Publisher:	Springer (Springer Science+Business Media B.V.)
Official URL:	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-0...
DOI or Unique Handle:	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-025-05015-5
Subjects:	General Issues > Data Specific Sciences > Physics > Astrophysics General Issues > Causation Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Experimentation General Issues > Explanation Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Physics > Relativity Theory General Issues > Theory/Observation
Date:	31 March 2025
Page Range:	pp. 1-28
Volume:	205
Number:	192
ISSN:	1573-0964
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/25163

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• Inference to the Source. (deposited 02 Apr 2025 15:07)
  • Inference to the Source. (deposited 25 Apr 2025 13:15) [Currently Displayed]

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