Lohse, Simon and van Basshuysen, Philippe (2025) Three Problems for Predictive Policy Advice. [Preprint]
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Abstract
Scientific policy advice has become a key input for rational decision making. In this article, we address three fundamental challenges predictive policy advice is faced with and that are inextricably linked to each other. The first challenge revolves around the question of which disciplines should – and indeed can – be drawn upon in providing input for predictive policy advice. We will explore field-specific differences in (actual and attributed) predictive capabilities, unearthing practical and normative challenges for science-informed policy. The second problem concerns navigating inherent, but often implicit, value influences in predictive policy advice. We will address issues of value transparency and legitimacy and highlight shortcomings in current practice. Finally, we will discuss the issue of model performativity as a deep problem for predictive policy advice. We will focus in particular on the question of how performative models ought to be evaluated and drawn upon for predictive policy advice. In the concluding part of the article, we will highlight connections among these challenges and suggest ways forward
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| Item Type: | Preprint | |||||||||
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| Keywords: | Evidence-based policy; Prediction; Epistemic Pluralism; Non-epistemic values; Performativity. | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Science and Society General Issues > Science and Policy General Issues > Values In Science |
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| Depositing User: | Dr. S. Lohse | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 17 Nov 2025 11:46 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 17 Nov 2025 11:46 | |||||||||
| Item ID: | 27233 | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Science and Society General Issues > Science and Policy General Issues > Values In Science |
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| Date: | 2025 | |||||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/27233 |
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