Allzén, Simon (2025) Bayesian Unification in the History of Dark Matter: Confirmation by Restructuring Old Evidence. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The history of dark matter is often glossed as a linear progression of accumulating evidence confirming its existence. The actual history, however, is far more complex and philosophically nuanced. In this paper, I revisit key moments in the establishment and justification of dark matter as a viable hypothesis and offer a Bayesian representation of the core inferences made at those moments. I argue, contrary to the textbook narrative, that certain evidential reclassifications played a pivotal confirmatory role even in the absence of new data. In particular, I show how unifying previously separate anomalous phenomena under a single modeling framework provided novel support for the dark matter hypothesis.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Allzén, Simon simon.allzen@philosophy.su.se 0000-0002-6124-8152
Keywords:	Bayesianism, Unification, Dark Matter
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Physics > Astrophysics General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology General Issues > Evidence
Depositing User:	Dr Simon Allzén
Date Deposited:	15 Dec 2025 20:22
Last Modified:	15 Dec 2025 20:22
Item ID:	27484
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Physics > Astrophysics General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology General Issues > Evidence
Date:	15 December 2025
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/27484

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