Northcott, Robert (2023) Prediction, history and political science. [Preprint]

Text 2023 Politl handbook, 'Prediction, history'.docx Download (77kB)

Abstract

Political science usually requires either prediction or contextual historical work to succeed. Because of the difficulty of prediction, the main focus should often be contextual historical work. Both of these methods favor narrow-scope explanations. I illustrate, via an example, the role that this still leaves for theory. I conclude by assessing the scope for political science to offer policy advice. All of this tells against several practices that are widespread in the discipline.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Northcott, Robert r.northcott@bbk.ac.uk
Subjects:	General Issues > Explanation Specific Sciences > Historical Sciences
Depositing User:	Professor Robert Northcott
Date Deposited:	21 Feb 2026 20:25
Last Modified:	21 Feb 2026 20:25
Item ID:	28297
Subjects:	General Issues > Explanation Specific Sciences > Historical Sciences
Date:	1 January 2023
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/28297

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