Thebault, Karim P Y and Okasha, Samir (2026) Confirmation and Artefact Asymmetry: A Bayesian Analysis. [Preprint]
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Abstract
A standard assumption in the epistemology of experiment is that experimental observations can only provide evidence for the existence of a worldly phenomenon if the experimental apparatus is properly calibrated and its functioning is adequately understood. However, this assumption is in tension with examples from early phases of science, most iconically Galileo's telescopic observations, when scientists had rather little knowledge about how their apparatus functioned nor whether it was reliable. We show that in such an epistemic position, it is nonetheless possible for experimental observations to provide evidence for the existence of a phenomenon, so long as certain conditions obtain. These "artefact asymmetry" conditions, as we call them, concern the probability that a given observation is an experimental artefact, conditional on the apparatus not functioning properly. We offer a Bayesian analysis of the implications of the artefact asymmetry conditions, and we illustrate with examples from the history of science whether those conditions do, and do not, obtain.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | |||||||||
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| Keywords: | epistemology of experiment; Bayesian confirmation | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Experimentation General Issues > History of Science Case Studies |
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| Depositing User: | Dr Karim Thebault | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 08 May 2026 11:41 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 08 May 2026 11:41 | |||||||||
| Item ID: | 29532 | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Experimentation General Issues > History of Science Case Studies |
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| Date: | 7 May 2026 | |||||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/29532 |
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