Paul, Franceschi (2008) A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. [Preprint]

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Abstract

I describe in this paper an ontological solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with describing the Entanglement urn experiment. I restate first the Sleeping Beauty problem from a wider perspective than the usual opposition between halfers and thirders. I also argue that the Sleeping Beauty experiment is best modelled with the Entanglement urn. I draw then the consequences of considering that some balls in the Entanglement urn have ontologically different properties form normal ones. In this context, considering a Monday-waking (drawing a red ball) leads to two different situations that are assigned each a different probability. This leads to a two-sided account of the Sleeping Beauty problem. On the one hand, the first situation is handled by the argument for 1/3. On the other hand, the second situation corresponds to a reasoning that echoes the argument for 1/2 but that leads however, to different conclusions.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Paul, Franceschi
Keywords:	Sleeping Beauty problem, probability, urn analogy, one-sidedness, two-sidedness
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Paul Franceschi
Date Deposited:	11 Dec 2008
Last Modified:	29 Oct 2010 15:48
Item ID:	4376
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	December 2008
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/4376

Available Versions of this Item

• Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. (deposited 22 Aug 2003)
  • Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. (deposited 20 Jan 2004)
    • Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. (deposited 22 Jan 2005)
      • Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. (deposited 20 Dec 2005)
        • An Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 18 Nov 2008)
          • A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 11 Dec 2008) [Currently Displayed]
            • A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 29 Oct 2010 15:48)

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