Paul, Franceschi (2010) A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. [Preprint]
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Abstract
I describe in this paper an ontological solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with describing the hyper-entanglement urn experiment. I restate first the Sleeping Beauty problem from a wider perspective than the usual opposition between halfers and thirders. I also argue that the Sleeping Beauty experiment is best modelled with the hyper-entanglement urn. I draw then the consequences of considering that some balls in the hyper-entanglement urn have ontologically different properties form normal ones. In this context, considering a Monday-waking (drawing a red ball) leads to two different situations that are assigned each a different probability. This leads to a two-sided account of the Sleeping Beauty problem. On the one hand, the first situation is handled by the argument for 1/3. On the other hand, the second situation corresponds to a reasoning that echoes the argument for 1/2.
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Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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Keywords: | Sleeping Beauty problem, probability, urn analogy, one-sidedness, two-sidedness | ||||||
Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics | ||||||
Depositing User: | Paul Franceschi | ||||||
Date Deposited: | 29 Oct 2010 15:48 | ||||||
Last Modified: | 29 Oct 2010 15:48 | ||||||
Item ID: | 8357 | ||||||
Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics | ||||||
Date: | 28 October 2010 | ||||||
URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/8357 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. (deposited 22 Aug 2003)
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Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. (deposited 20 Jan 2004)
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Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. (deposited 22 Jan 2005)
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Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. (deposited 20 Dec 2005)
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An Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 18 Nov 2008)
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A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 11 Dec 2008)
- A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 29 Oct 2010 15:48) [Currently Displayed]
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A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 11 Dec 2008)
-
An Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 18 Nov 2008)
-
Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. (deposited 20 Dec 2005)
-
Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. (deposited 22 Jan 2005)
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Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. (deposited 20 Jan 2004)
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