Steele, Katie and Werndl, Charlotte (2012) Climate Models, Calibration and Confirmation. [Preprint]
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Abstract
We argue that concerns about double-counting -- using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate --deserve more careful scrutiny in climate modelling circles. It is widely held that double-counting is bad and that separate data must be used for calibration and confirmation. We show that this is far from obviously true, and that
climate scientists may be confusing their targets. Our analysis turns on a Bayesian/relative-likelihood approach to incremental confirmation. According to this approach, double-counting is entirely proper. We go on to discuss
plausible difficulties with calibrating climate models, and we distinguish more and less ambitious notions of confirmation. Strong claims of confirmation may not, in many cases, be warranted, but it would be a mistake to regard double-counting as the culprit.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | |||||||||
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| Keywords: | confirmation, calibration, tuning, double-counting, climate science, Bayesianism | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Depositing User: | Charlotte Werndl | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 23 Apr 2012 14:09 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 23 Apr 2012 14:09 | |||||||||
| Item ID: | 9099 | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Date: | 23 April 2012 | |||||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9099 |
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