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Contrastive explanations, crystal balls and the inadmissibility of historical information

Nissan-Rozen, Ittay (2014) Contrastive explanations, crystal balls and the inadmissibility of historical information. In: UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

I argue for the falsity of what I call the "Admissibility of Historical Information Thesis" (AHIT). According to the AHIT propositions that describe past events are always admissible with respect to propositions that describe future events. I first demonstrate that this demand has some counter-intuitive implications and then argue that the source of the counter-intuitiveness is a wrong understanding of the concept of chance. I also discuss the relation between the failure of the AHIT and the existence of contrastive explanations for chancy events (which David Lewis denied).


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Nissan-Rozen, Ittayittay.nissan@mail.huji.ac.il
Keywords: the Principal Principle, Chance, Credence, Contrastive Explanations, Admissibility,
Subjects: General Issues > Laws of Nature
Depositing User: Dr. Ittay Nissan-Rozen
Date Deposited: 12 Oct 2014 15:01
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2014 15:01
Item ID: 11063
Subjects: General Issues > Laws of Nature
Date: 12 October 2014
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11063

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