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Dilation, Disintegrations, and Delayed Decisions

Pedersen, Arthur Paul and Wheeler, Gregory (2015) Dilation, Disintegrations, and Delayed Decisions. 9th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA 2015). pp. 227-236.

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Abstract

Both dilation and non-conglomerability have been alleged to conflict with a fundamental principle of Bayesian methodology that we call \textit{Good's Principle}: one should always delay making a terminal decision between alternative courses of action if given the opportunity to first learn, at zero cost, the outcome of an experiment relevant to the decision. In particular, both dilation and non-conglomerability have been alleged to permit or even mandate choosing to make a terminal decision in deliberate ignorance of relevant, cost-free information. Although dilation and non-conglomerability share some similarities, some authors maintain that there are important differences between the two that warrant endorsing different normative positions regarding dilation and non-conglomerability. This article reassesses the grounds for treating dilation and non-conglomerability differently. Our analysis exploits a new and general characterization result for dilation to draw a closer connection between dilation and non-conglomerability.


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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Pedersen, Arthur Paul
Wheeler, Gregorygregory.r.wheeler@gmail.com
Keywords: Imprecise Probability; Dilation; Nonconglomerability; Value of Information
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Gregory Wheeler
Date Deposited: 27 Mar 2016 21:21
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2016 21:21
Item ID: 11979
Journal or Publication Title: 9th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA 2015)
Official URL: http://www.sipta.org/isipta15/?pag=proceedings
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 2015
Page Range: pp. 227-236
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11979

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