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Resolving Peer Disagreement Through Imprecise Probabilities

Wheeler, Gregory and Elkin, Lee (2016) Resolving Peer Disagreement Through Imprecise Probabilities. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Two compelling principles, the Reasonable Range Principle and the Preservation of Irrelevant Evidence Principle, are necessary conditions that any response to peer disagreements ought to abide by. The Reasonable Range Principle maintains that a resolution to a peer disagreement should not fall outside the range of views expressed by the peers in their dispute, whereas the Preservation of Irrelevant Evidence (PIE) Principle maintains that a resolution strategy should be able to preserve unanimous judgments of evidential irrelevance among the peers. No standard Bayesian resolution strategy satisfies the PIE Principle, however, and we give a loss aversion argument in support of PIE and against Bayes. The theory of imprecise probability allows one to satisfy both principles, and we introduce the notion of a set-based credal judgment to frame and address a range of subtle issues that arise in peer disagreements.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Wheeler, Gregorygregory.r.wheeler@gmail.com
Elkin, Lee
Keywords: Formal Epistemology, imprecise probability, opinion pooling
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Gregory Wheeler
Date Deposited: 16 Jun 2016 12:39
Last Modified: 16 Jun 2016 12:39
Item ID: 12205
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 2016
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/12205

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