PhilSci Archive

Minimizing Inaccuracy for Self-Locating Beliefs

Kierland, Brian and Monton, Bradley (2003) Minimizing Inaccuracy for Self-Locating Beliefs. [Preprint]

This is the latest version of this item.


Download (32kB)


One's inaccuracy for a proposition is defined as the squared difference between the truth value (1 or 0) of the proposition and the credence (or subjective probability, or degree of belief) assigned to the proposition. One should have the epistemic goal of minimizing the expected inaccuracies of one's credences. We show that the method of minimizing expected inaccuracy can be used to solve certain probability problems involving information loss and self-locating beliefs (where a self-locating belief of a temporal part of an individual is a belief about where or when that temporal part is located). We analyze the Sleeping Beauty problem, the duplication version of the Sleeping Beauty problem, and various related problems

Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Preprint
Kierland, Brian
Monton, Bradley
Additional Information: This is the penultimate version of a paper forthcoming in _Philosophy and Phenomenological Research_. Please do not cite this version.
Keywords: Sleeping Beauty, self-locating beliefs, proper scoring rules
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Decision Theory
Depositing User: Bradley Monton
Date Deposited: 17 Jun 2003
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:11
Item ID: 1224
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Decision Theory
Date: June 2003

Available Versions of this Item

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item