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Minimizing Inaccuracy for Self-Locating Beliefs

Kierland, Brian and Monton, Bradley (2003) Minimizing Inaccuracy for Self-Locating Beliefs. [Preprint]

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Abstract

One's inaccuracy for a proposition is defined as the squared difference between the truth value (1 or 0) of the proposition and the credence (or subjective probability, or degree of belief) assigned to the proposition. One should have the epistemic goal of minimizing the expected inaccuracies of one's credences. We show that the method of minimizing expected inaccuracy can be used to solve certain probability problems involving information loss and self-locating beliefs (where a self-locating belief of a temporal part of an individual is a belief about where or when that temporal part is located). We analyze the Sleeping Beauty problem, the duplication version of the Sleeping Beauty problem, and various related problems


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Kierland, Brian
Monton, Bradley
Additional Information: This is the penultimate version of a paper forthcoming in _Philosophy and Phenomenological Research_. Please do not cite this version.
Keywords: Sleeping Beauty, self-locating beliefs, proper scoring rules
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Decision Theory
Depositing User: Bradley Monton
Date Deposited: 17 Jun 2003
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:11
Item ID: 1224
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1224

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