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Sleeping Beauty goes to the lab: The psychology of self-locating evidence

Colombo, Matteo and Lai, Jun and Crupi, Vincenzo (2016) Sleeping Beauty goes to the lab: The psychology of self-locating evidence. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Analyses of the Sleeping Beauty Problem are polarised between those that advocate the “1/2 view” and those that advocate the “1/3 view.” One source of disagreement between
advocates of different views concerns the evidential relevance of self-locating information. Unlike halfers, thirders regard self-locating information as evidentially relevant in the Sleeping Beauty Problem. The present study advances the debate, providing a more nuanced and empirically grounded account of the evidential impact of self-locating information. By systematically manipulating the kind of information available in different formulations of the Sleeping Beauty Problem, we show that human reasoners acknowledge self-locating evidence as relevant, but discount its weight. This indicates that patterns of judgment on different formulations of the Sleeping Beauty Problem do not fit either the “1/2 view” or the “1/3 view.” Our results suggest that an adequate explication of the evidential relevance of self-locating information should take into account that self-locating information may trigger more cautious judgments of confirmation than familiar kinds of statistical evidence.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Colombo, Matteom.colombo@uvt.nl
Lai, Jun
Crupi, Vincenzo
Keywords: sleeping beauty problem; probability; reasoning; self-locating evidence
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Psychology/Psychiatry
Depositing User: Dr. Matteo Colombo
Date Deposited: 07 Nov 2016 14:34
Last Modified: 07 Nov 2016 14:34
Item ID: 12603
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Psychology/Psychiatry
Date: November 2016
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/12603

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