Colombo, Matteo and Lai, Jun and Crupi, Vincenzo (2016) Sleeping Beauty goes to the lab: The psychology of self-locating evidence. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Analyses of the Sleeping Beauty Problem are polarised between those that advocate the “1/2 view” and those that advocate the “1/3 view.” One source of disagreement between
advocates of different views concerns the evidential relevance of self-locating information. Unlike halfers, thirders regard self-locating information as evidentially relevant in the Sleeping Beauty Problem. The present study advances the debate, providing a more nuanced and empirically grounded account of the evidential impact of self-locating information. By systematically manipulating the kind of information available in different formulations of the Sleeping Beauty Problem, we show that human reasoners acknowledge self-locating evidence as relevant, but discount its weight. This indicates that patterns of judgment on different formulations of the Sleeping Beauty Problem do not fit either the “1/2 view” or the “1/3 view.” Our results suggest that an adequate explication of the evidential relevance of self-locating information should take into account that self-locating information may trigger more cautious judgments of confirmation than familiar kinds of statistical evidence.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Colombo, Matteo m.colombo@uvt.nl Lai, Jun Crupi, Vincenzo
Keywords:	sleeping beauty problem; probability; reasoning; self-locating evidence
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Psychology
Depositing User:	Dr. Matteo Colombo
Date Deposited:	07 Nov 2016 14:34
Last Modified:	07 Nov 2016 14:34
Item ID:	12603
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Psychology
Date:	November 2016
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/12603

Available Versions of this Item

• Sleeping Beauty goes to the lab: The psychology of self-locating evidence. (deposited 14 Dec 2015 14:53)
  • Sleeping Beauty goes to the lab: The psychology of self-locating evidence. (deposited 04 Jan 2018 15:42)
  • Sleeping Beauty goes to the lab: The psychology of self-locating evidence. (deposited 07 Nov 2016 14:34) [Currently Displayed]

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