Liu, Yang and Price, Huw (2018) Ramsey and Joyce on Deliberation and Prediction. [Preprint]
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Abstract
Can an agent deliberating about an action A hold a meaningful credence that she will do A? ‘No’, say some authors, for ‘Deliberation Crowds Out Prediction’ (DCOP). Others disagree, but we argue here that such disagreements are often terminological. We explain why DCOP holds in a Ramseyian operationalist model of credence, but show that it is trivial to extend this model so that DCOP fails. We then discuss a model due to Joyce, and show that Joyce’s rejection of DCOP rests on terminological choices about terms such as ‘intention’, ‘prediction’, and ‘belief’. Once these choices are in view, they reveal underlying agreement between Joyce and the DCOP-favouring tradition that descends from Ramsey. Joyce’s Evidential Autonomy Thesis (EAT) is effectively DCOP, in different terminological clothing. Both principles rest on the so-called ‘transparency’ of first-person present-tensed reflection on one’s own mental states.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | |||||||||
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| Keywords: | act credence, deliberation, prediction, Ramsey, Joyce, agency, transparency | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Decision Theory Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Depositing User: | Prof Huw Price | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 26 Aug 2018 14:34 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 26 Aug 2018 14:34 | |||||||||
| Item ID: | 14972 | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Decision Theory Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Date: | 26 August 2018 | |||||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/14972 |
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Deliberation and Prediction. (deposited 12 Jan 2018 21:26)
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Ramsey and Joyce Deliberation and Prediction. (deposited 04 Mar 2018 03:05)
- Ramsey and Joyce on Deliberation and Prediction. (deposited 26 Aug 2018 14:34) [Currently Displayed]
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Ramsey and Joyce Deliberation and Prediction. (deposited 04 Mar 2018 03:05)
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