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Making confident decisions with model ensembles

Roussos, Joe and Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Richard (2020) Making confident decisions with model ensembles. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Many policy decisions take input from collections of scientific models. Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called “confidence approach” to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and illustrate the approach with a case study: insurance pricing using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems. We end by discussing different ways in which model ensembles can feed information into the approach, appropriate to different collections of models.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Roussos, Joejoe.roussos@iffs.se0000-0002-7663-8057
Frigg, Romanr.p.frigg@lse.ac.uk
Bradley, RichardR.Bradley@lse.ac.uk
Keywords: model ensembles, decision making, ambiguity, severe uncertainty
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology
General Issues > Decision Theory
General Issues > Science and Policy
Depositing User: Mr Joe Roussos
Date Deposited: 09 Apr 2020 02:39
Last Modified: 09 Apr 2020 02:39
Item ID: 17053
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology
General Issues > Decision Theory
General Issues > Science and Policy
Date: 2020
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/17053

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