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Tacking by Conjunction, Genuine Confirmation and Bayesian Convergence

Schurz, Gerhard (2020) Tacking by Conjunction, Genuine Confirmation and Bayesian Convergence. In: UNSPECIFIED.


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Tacking by conjunction is a well-known problem for Bayesian confirmation theory. In the first section of the paper we point out disadvantages of orthodox Bayesian solu-tion proposals to this problem and develop an alternative solution based on a strengthened concept of probabilistic confirmation, called genuine confirmation. In the second section we illustrate the application of the concept of genuine confirmation to Goodman-type counter-inductive generalizations and to post-facto speculations. In the final section we demonstrate that genuine confirmation is a necessary condition for Bayesian convergence to certainty based on the accumulation of conditionally in-dependent pieces of evidence.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Keywords: Tacking by Conjunction Genuine Confirmation Bayesian Convergence
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Depositing User: Gerhard Schurz
Date Deposited: 16 Jul 2020 02:48
Last Modified: 16 Jul 2020 02:48
Item ID: 17474
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Date: 1 July 2020

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