Ward, Barry (2021) Resolving the Raven Paradox: Simple Random Sampling, Stratified Random Sampling, and Inference to the Best Explanation. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Simple random sampling resolutions of the raven paradox relevantly diverge from scientific practice. We develop a stratified random sampling model, yielding a better fit and apparently rehabilitating simple random sampling as a legitimate idealization. However, neither accommodates a second concern, the objection from potential bias. We develop a third model that crucially invokes causal considerations, yielding a novel resolution that handles both concerns. This approach resembles Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) and relates the generalization’s confirmation to confirmation of an associated law. We give it an objective Bayesian formalization and discuss the compatibility of Bayesianism and IBE.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Ward, Barry
Keywords:	Raven Paradox, Simple Random Sampling, Stratified Random Sampling, Inference to the Best Explanation, Objective Bayesianism, Screening Off Thesis (SOT)
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Explanation General Issues > Laws of Nature
Depositing User:	Dr Barry Ward
Date Deposited:	10 Jun 2021 03:41
Last Modified:	10 Jun 2021 03:41
Item ID:	19163
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Explanation General Issues > Laws of Nature
Date:	31 January 2021
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/19163

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