Hicks, Daniel J. (2022) The P value plot does not provide evidence against air pollution hazards. Environmental Epidemiology, 6 (2). e198. ISSN 2474-7882
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Abstract
Background:
A number of papers by Young and collaborators have criticized epidemiological studies and meta-analyses of air pollution hazards using a graphical method that the authors call a P value plot, claiming to find zero effects, heterogeneity, and P hacking. However, the P value plot method has not been validated in a peer-reviewed publication. The aim of this study was to investigate the statistical and evidentiary properties of this method.
Methods:
A simulation was developed to create studies and meta-analyses with known real effects δ, integrating two quantifiable conceptions of evidence from the philosophy of science literature. The simulation and analysis is publicly available and automatically reproduced.
Results:
In this simulation, the plot did not provide evidence for heterogeneity or P hacking with respect to any condition. Under the right conditions, the plot can provide evidence of zero effects; but these conditions are not satisfied in any actual use by Young and collaborators.
Conclusion:
The P value plot does not provide evidence to support the skeptical claims about air pollution hazards made by Young and collaborators.
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| Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | ||||||
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| Subjects: | General Issues > Computer Simulation Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Depositing User: | Dan Hicks | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 19 Sep 2022 17:58 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 19 Sep 2022 17:58 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 21181 | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Environmental Epidemiology | ||||||
| Official URL: | http://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000198 | ||||||
| DOI or Unique Handle: | 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000198 | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Computer Simulation Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Date: | 2022 | ||||||
| Page Range: | e198 | ||||||
| Volume: | 6 | ||||||
| Number: | 2 | ||||||
| ISSN: | 2474-7882 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/21181 |
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