Dethier, Corey (2022) Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports. [Preprint]

Preview

Text IPLIR 22.08.18.pdf Download (191kB) | Preview

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) often qualifies its statements by use of probabilistic “likelihood” language. In this paper, I show that this language is not properly interpreted in either frequentist or Bayesian terms—simply put, the IPCC uses both kinds of statistics to calculate these likelihoods. I then offer a deflationist interpretation: the probabilistic language expresses nothing more than how compatible the evidence is with the given hypothesis according to some method that generates normalized scores. I end by drawing some tentative normative conclusions.

---

Export/Citation:

EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL

Social Networking:

Share |

---

Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Dethier, Corey corey.dethier@gmail.com 0000-0002-1240-8391
Additional Information:	Forthcoming in *Ergo*
Keywords:	Probability, IPCC, Climate Science
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Dr. Corey Dethier
Date Deposited:	15 Nov 2022 18:51
Last Modified:	15 Nov 2022 18:51
Item ID:	21422
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	2022
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/21422

Available Versions of this Item

• Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports. (deposited 15 Nov 2022 18:51) [Currently Displayed]
  • Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports. (deposited 21 Nov 2023 00:06)

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item