Wilcox, John (2023) Ad Hocness, Accommodation and Consilience: A Bayesian Account. [Preprint]
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Abstract
We all make judgments about what is true or false, probable or improbable. Scientists do so too. And in the process, we frequently appeal to concepts such as evidential support or explanation. Bayesian philosophers of science have given illuminating formal accounts of these concepts. This paper aims to follow in their footsteps, providing a novel formal account of various concepts: the likelihood-prior trade-off, successful accommodation of evidence, ad hocness, and, finally, consilience—sometimes also called “unification”. Using these accounts, I also provide a new Bayesian analysis of how someone such as Charles Darwin hypothetically could have reasoned in favor of evolution over special creationism. Lastly, I explore how these accounts relate to other topics and accounts in philosophy, and I chart out some areas for further research.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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| Keywords: | Bayesianism; ad hocness; consilience; unification; likelihood-prior trade-off | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Biology > Evolutionary Theory General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Explanation Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Science and Religion |
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| Depositing User: | Dr John Wilcox | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 06 Feb 2023 16:28 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 06 Feb 2023 16:28 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 21611 | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Biology > Evolutionary Theory General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Explanation Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Science and Religion |
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| Date: | 2 January 2023 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/21611 |
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