Schupbach, Jonah N. (2008) Is the Conjunction Fallacy tied to Probabilistic Confirmation? UNSPECIFIED.
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Abstract
Crupi, Fitelson, and Tentori (CFT, forthcoming) offer three conditions that constitute an attempted confirmation-theoretic explanation of the conjunction fallacy. I present experimental results to show that CFT’s conditions are neither necessary nor sufficient for the fallacy. There exist cases that do not meet their three conditions in which subjects still tend to commit the fallacy. Also, there exist cases that meet all three of CFT’s conditions in which subjects do not tend to commit the fallacy. In light of these experiments, CFT’s account of the conjunction fallacy cannot be right as it stands.
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| Item Type: | Other | ||||||
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| Commentary on: | Vincenzo, Crupi and Branden, Fitelson and Katya, Tentori (2007) Probability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy. In: UNSPECIFIED. | ||||||
| Keywords: | confirmation theory, Bayesianism, conjunction fallacy, human judgment, uncertainty, human reasoning | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Psychology Specific Sciences > Cognitive Science General Issues > Formal Learning Theory General Issues > Experimentation |
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| Depositing User: | Jonah N. Schupbach | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 23 Dec 2007 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 07 Oct 2010 15:16 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 3755 | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Psychology Specific Sciences > Cognitive Science General Issues > Formal Learning Theory General Issues > Experimentation |
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| Date: | 2008 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/3755 |
Commentary/Response Threads
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Vincenzo, Crupi and Branden, Fitelson and Katya, Tentori
Probability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy. (deposited 24 Apr 2007)
- Schupbach, Jonah N. Is the Conjunction Fallacy tied to Probabilistic Confirmation? (deposited 23 Dec 2007) [Currently Displayed]
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